Outliers

It was a quiet Saturday for Team Fetter/Sciola. Just the one auction, having sold two other houses before auction. 

Our sole auction, a single front in Armadale, sold after passing in with three bidders. 

Our perfect success rate of 100% clearance out of the Stonnington office for the last two weeks came to an end, with several properties passing in. Nearly all have now sold. 

Across Melbourne and our regional / lifestyle hubs, Jellis Craig saw a respectable auction success rate of 76% from 125 auctions. 

The market has improved. No doubt about it. 

Whether we see three percent growth or ten percent growth in 2025, all bets are on more rate cuts and more competition for quality homes. 

Unless, of course, the geopolitical situation deteriorates and then all bets are off!

But if things don’t go to hell in a handbasket, which they probably won’t, even a modest five percent gain equates to $150,000 for the median house price in Malvern. 

It’s funny how buyers quibble over $20k at the pointy end of a negotiation to secure a house at $3,000,000. 

If you believe the PropTrack data, Melbourne house prices gained 0.7% in February, the highest of any capital city. 

If the median price in Melbourne went up 0.7%, prices in Malvern likely rose double that, as the premium end of the market always see more rapid and higher price gains (and falls) than the middle tier suburbs. 

If so, the property you missed for $20k might have gone up by $40k in February alone. 

Taking another three months to find your home could cost you another $100k, hypothetically. 

One of the most experienced buyer’s advocates I know has a saying, “They didn’t pay too much, they just paid the right price early”. 

This is true in a rising market. 

If I think about all the properties we’ve sold so far in 2025, most of them have sold for at least 10% more than we were expecting, based on recent comparable sales from the second half of 2024. 

Individual house price results don’t follow a slow and gradual price trend graph, which is smoothed out with hundreds of data points. They jump up and down all over the place. 

I often say to my vendors who are tempted to wait for prices to increase before selling, a great result today in a “softer” market but with limited stock could be substantially higher than an average result in a “stronger” market but with more competing properties. 

You can always outperform or underperform the market, whether buying or selling. 

It’s usually those bolder individuals who go against the grain that outperform. These are the outliers. 

The best time to buy was probably six months ago. The next best time could be now. 

You will see many properties coming to market this week, and a decent amount next week. Then it will get eerily quiet for about a month as we pause the new listings for school holidays, Easter and Anzac Day. 

Now could be a good time to make hay while the Autumn sun shines. 

As the Mamas & The Papas said, “All the leaves are brown.” 

You’ll be getting your black puffy jacket out in no time.

Feature property: 167 Brighton Street, Richmond